We all know about it. We've all heard Remain voters moan about it and accuse the Leave side of lying about it. We have all heard Vote Leave defending it, then backtracking on it, then defending it again. Some of the Leave campaigners can't even make up their minds on how valid it's claim actually was. So then, how accurate was that message on that bus? Can we send £350m a week to the NHS? And do we even get the £350m a week in the first place?
Image courtesy of the BBC via Getty Images
Where Did the £350m a week figure come from?
It came from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), who say we sent £19.1bn or £365m a week to the EU in 2014, or £335m on average per week during the period of 2010 - 2014. Therefore technically, this is a correct figure and they didn't pluck it out of a hat. It came from experts who work for a big organisation with an acronym for a name (If you listen carefully, you can hear Michael Gove screaming in horror), so they didn't really lie as such.
Why are people discrediting it then?
It is highly discredited, particularly by Remainers, because this figure doesn't take in to account a lot of other issues.
Firstly, there is the fact that although Britain does send this money to the EU, we also get billions of it back in direct rebates. The UK Statistics Authority dealt with this issue back in April 2016. They took the £19.1bn figure we sent to the EU in 2014 and then deducted the £4.4bn we recieved back in direct rebates, which meant we were actually paying £14.7bn or £285m per week. Averaged out, Britain paid £13.9bn or £270m per week between 2010-2014.
Then they considered the payments that the EU paid directly into the public sector, which according to their figures were worth £4.8bn in 2014. If this is deducted from the sum, then Britain only pays £9.8bn per year, or £190m per week to the EU. Averaged over the period of 2010 - 2014, this equated to £8.9bn or £170m per week.
There is also the private sector to consider. However, to include the EU's contribution to the private sector is pretty difficult, as the figures are worked out differently and have different origins. As a result, relating those statistics to the other statistics listed here is probably not a fair thing to do on Vote Leave and may not present accurate information. Also, the private sector figures are notoriously unpredictable. So for this reason, I am leaving the private sector out of this for now.
So the amount we paid to the EU during the period of 2010 - 2014 was £170m a week, once all direct rebates and public sector payments were deducted.
Firstly, there is the fact that although Britain does send this money to the EU, we also get billions of it back in direct rebates. The UK Statistics Authority dealt with this issue back in April 2016. They took the £19.1bn figure we sent to the EU in 2014 and then deducted the £4.4bn we recieved back in direct rebates, which meant we were actually paying £14.7bn or £285m per week. Averaged out, Britain paid £13.9bn or £270m per week between 2010-2014.
Then they considered the payments that the EU paid directly into the public sector, which according to their figures were worth £4.8bn in 2014. If this is deducted from the sum, then Britain only pays £9.8bn per year, or £190m per week to the EU. Averaged over the period of 2010 - 2014, this equated to £8.9bn or £170m per week.
There is also the private sector to consider. However, to include the EU's contribution to the private sector is pretty difficult, as the figures are worked out differently and have different origins. As a result, relating those statistics to the other statistics listed here is probably not a fair thing to do on Vote Leave and may not present accurate information. Also, the private sector figures are notoriously unpredictable. So for this reason, I am leaving the private sector out of this for now.
So the amount we paid to the EU during the period of 2010 - 2014 was £170m a week, once all direct rebates and public sector payments were deducted.
So Vote Leave lied about the cash?
Well, in all honesty, probably not. They were running a frantic campaign and working long hours. I imagine they saw the ONS figure, jumped on it and didn't really think about investigating it any further. They probably screwed-up, in other words. I imagine none of them are too sure what to do about it now and probably develop a nervous tick every time someone says the word 'bus'.
Alternatively, they may have deliberately left out the deductions because it looked more impressive on a bus. This wouldn't constitute lying as such because we do send that amount to the EU. They just didn't mention that we get any of it back. If this is true, then it was a sly and underhanded way of grabbing people's votes. Who would expect such tactics from politicians?? Seriously, that kind of technique has been used by politicians for decades - we can't suddenly jump on these ones for using it. We can campaign for tighter regulations over such things in the future but on this particular one, I think we sadly may have to grin and beat it.
The truth was 'outed' in April 2016, so it is uncertain how much influence the bus message actually had on the EU Referendum result anyway.
Alternatively, they may have deliberately left out the deductions because it looked more impressive on a bus. This wouldn't constitute lying as such because we do send that amount to the EU. They just didn't mention that we get any of it back. If this is true, then it was a sly and underhanded way of grabbing people's votes. Who would expect such tactics from politicians?? Seriously, that kind of technique has been used by politicians for decades - we can't suddenly jump on these ones for using it. We can campaign for tighter regulations over such things in the future but on this particular one, I think we sadly may have to grin and beat it.
The truth was 'outed' in April 2016, so it is uncertain how much influence the bus message actually had on the EU Referendum result anyway.
Well, why isn't the £170m a week going to the NHS at least?
Well, firstly, we haven't left the EU yet! We are still paying them and until such time as we leave the EU, that cash isn't available. So the cries of "Where is our NHS money!" is a bit irrelevant at this point. Yes, Vote Leave stated it would be available immediately after a Leave vote. However, that was based on David Cameron's pledge to invoke Article 50 the day after the referendum. He didn't. He chose to bottle it and run for the hills instead.
So what about when we do leave the EU? Well, it's hard to say at this point. Theresa May and several other politicians have declined to commit to the NHS pledge. Also, the Office of Budget Responsibility has predicted we will need to borrow £226m per week for the next five years, equating to £58.7bn in borrowing during that period. If this prediction is correct, I can't really see the NHS pledge being fulfilled as we will need the cash elsewhere. In fact, NHS services are more likely to be hit hard as we struggle to cope with unpredictable financial markets, a yo-yoing pound and uncertainty over trade deals.
That said, there are still Vote Leave campaigners who are trying to secure the leftover money for the NHS. Whether they succeed in this venture remains to be seen.
Also, Brexit might surprise me and become a rip-roaring success. In which case perhaps that money will eventually make it's way to the NHS. Albeit, I doubt it will be available the moment Article 50 is invoked. It probably won't materialise for many years to come.
Obviously by then, the NHS may comprise of one hospital that is based in a shack, with Jeremy Hunt standing over it and questioning whether it really needs a roof...
So what about when we do leave the EU? Well, it's hard to say at this point. Theresa May and several other politicians have declined to commit to the NHS pledge. Also, the Office of Budget Responsibility has predicted we will need to borrow £226m per week for the next five years, equating to £58.7bn in borrowing during that period. If this prediction is correct, I can't really see the NHS pledge being fulfilled as we will need the cash elsewhere. In fact, NHS services are more likely to be hit hard as we struggle to cope with unpredictable financial markets, a yo-yoing pound and uncertainty over trade deals.
That said, there are still Vote Leave campaigners who are trying to secure the leftover money for the NHS. Whether they succeed in this venture remains to be seen.
Also, Brexit might surprise me and become a rip-roaring success. In which case perhaps that money will eventually make it's way to the NHS. Albeit, I doubt it will be available the moment Article 50 is invoked. It probably won't materialise for many years to come.
Obviously by then, the NHS may comprise of one hospital that is based in a shack, with Jeremy Hunt standing over it and questioning whether it really needs a roof...
So the NHS pledge was a lie?
Probably. However, it is hard to tell as when the pledge was made, so much was different. The pledge was made on the assumption that if Vote Leave won, David Cameron would remain PM, the ministers involved would remain in their jobs and the government would remain the same. It was also made in the assumption that Article 50 would be invoked immediately.
However, David Cameron decided to be a gutless wonder and disappear the moment things got tough. This lead to a governmental mess right at the time when we needed stability. As a result, we wound up with a new PM and a lot of the Vote Leave team got shifted into new jobs or dumped from government altogether.
Also, things have changed on an international level as well. The US Election has shook things up, the EU have shown us how they feel about Brexit and the world in general has reacted to the Referendum result. Reality has kicked in.
Perhaps when they were in their old roles the Brexiteers figured they could work on their old friend David Cameron and deliver on the pledge, perhaps they were imcompetent and thought that the money would be there and now realise it isn't, perhaps other information has come to light since they made the pledge, or perhaps they made it up. We can make assumptions but that's all they really are.
What is clear, however, is that the NHS will be very lucky to see any money from this new source of income.
However, David Cameron decided to be a gutless wonder and disappear the moment things got tough. This lead to a governmental mess right at the time when we needed stability. As a result, we wound up with a new PM and a lot of the Vote Leave team got shifted into new jobs or dumped from government altogether.
Also, things have changed on an international level as well. The US Election has shook things up, the EU have shown us how they feel about Brexit and the world in general has reacted to the Referendum result. Reality has kicked in.
Perhaps when they were in their old roles the Brexiteers figured they could work on their old friend David Cameron and deliver on the pledge, perhaps they were imcompetent and thought that the money would be there and now realise it isn't, perhaps other information has come to light since they made the pledge, or perhaps they made it up. We can make assumptions but that's all they really are.
What is clear, however, is that the NHS will be very lucky to see any money from this new source of income.
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